Mtengo mtengo mu US shale mafuta mu 2014

media dziko mokwanira kusangalatsa anthu, disclosing chakuti "shale zisinthe" kwachitika mu United States. Kuchokera pa zimene mfundo mfundo zimenezi zingakhale zogwirizana? Pali, makamaka amakhulupirira kuti mtengo wa US shale kupanga mafuta mu 2014 anakana moti makampani American kwa m'zigawo "golide wakuda", mfundo sindikusamala chimene panopa mitengo dziko za malonda. ngati n'kololeka? ndi zinthu zokhudza mtengo wa mafuta shale Kodi ndi makampani American?

ndi shale mafuta Kodi

Choyamba, yaing'ono ongolankhula MPATUKO ku nkhani. Kodi shale mafuta? Mtengo mtengo wa mankhwala ife kudziwa?

Popeza kuti pali kwenikweni mitundu iwiri ya mafuta m'chinenero cha Russian pa munthu mu msewu mlingo dzina wamba - "slate". Choyamba - ichi ndi mankhwala, komanso amene amapangidwa mwa njira yapamwamba, ali wosanjikiza wapadera mitundu dziko lapansi. Iwo ali kutchedwa "Opatulika pamasileti". Koma pali mankhwala wina. Mu mtundu yoyenera mafuta akhoza kuwamva monga PAMASILETI amenewa, umatchedwanso "flammable". Iwo Kwenikweni, lili mankhwala katundu zofanana kwambiri ndi mafuta - shale mafuta. Ndipo izo ndi umisiri ena anachira ndi pansi processing.

Choncho, mawu akuti "shale mafuta" angathe kutanthauziridwa mu njira zitatu. akuti:

- ponena za "shale mafuta";

- ndi analogue kwambiri a mtundu miyambo ya mafuta, koma amapezeka osiyanasiyana minda;

- yotengedwa shale utomoni.

Monga chobalidwa, limene mafuta angathe kupanga, ntchito, motero, wachiwiri ndi wachitatu. Tisanaone mtengo wa mafuta kupanga shale, tiyeni tione zimene akatswiri angapo a ndi wa kuganiza kuti ndalama kugwirizana ndi kupeza aliyense wa mankhwala awiri otchulidwa akhoza zimasiyana kwambiri. Kawirikawiri, mafuta kuwapeza mafuta shale, okwera mtengo kwambiri.

Kodi lagona shale mafuta?

Poganizira mfundo zokhudza mtengo wa mafuta shale, tidzaphunzira limatchula za madipoziti, limene ntchito zogwirizana. Malinga ndi malipoti angapo a mabungwe mawunikidwe, United States - mtsogoleri dziko mu nkhokwe zachilengedwe, mu funso. Waukulu minda mafuta, zokhudzana shale gulu, kunama America mu boma la Texas, ku madera a ku gombe la kumadzulo ndi kumpoto cha kum'mawa kwa dziko. Komanso nkhokwe kwambiri otchedwa "mchenga mafuta" imene ili mu Canada.

Pali madipoziti kwambiri za "shale" ndi m'mayiko ena ambiri padziko lonse, kuphatikizapo mu Russia, komanso ku mayiko amene zikuoneka kuti anthu saona lero mphamvu mphamvu - Slovakia, Poland, Ukraine. Kafukufuku lingathe akuchira mafuta shale ndi kwambiri m'goli mwa akatswiri. Makamaka chifukwa chakuti ziwerengero kuti mpata analytics apamwamba, osati nthawi zonse mandala, Zoneneratu ku mabungwe osiyanasiyana mzere kuwalitsa, makamaka, kuchuluka kwa nkhokwe m'munda, kungakhale zolakwika kapena mobwerezabwereza yantchito.

zizindikiro mtengo

Kupeza zimene mwina pafupifupi mtengo wa mafuta shale mu US, ife titembenukira kwa chiwerengero cha magwero Katswiri. Anafalitsa nkhani pa maphunziro zogwirizana amachitika zaka osiyana amatipatsa deta wosanganiza kwambiri. Chifukwa chiyani? Kodi n'zoona kuti mtengo wa US shale kupanga mafuta mwachindunji amadalira subtype mankhwala (pamwamba, ife apeza ziwiri)? Kutengera pa mfundo zingapo zopangira, ndi.

Mu 2012, magazini ya Time lofalitsidwa deta zotsatirazi. Iwo Komabe, nkhawa zochita lonse. Komabe, lingaliro la chimene chingakhale mtengo wa mafuta shale mu United States, zimenezi angatipatse.

Malinga ndi ziwerengero Katswiri, pa maziko amene Time magazini lofalitsidwa kanjedza, kupanga 1 mbiya ya mafuta mafuta shale mu 2012 analipo pafupifupi $ 100. Nawonso index kwa mafuta kuli pakati pa zigawo, ngakhale kwambiri kapena zochepa, ndipo zosakwana hafu - 50 dollars. Choncho, anafuulira mwa ife chiyambi cha nkhani amakhulupirira kuti mtengo wa mafuta shale mu US ndi mayiko ena zimadalira subtype yeniyeni ya mankhwala zikutsimikiziridwa ngati ife deta chaka cha 2012.

Mafuta mu United States ndiponso padziko lonse

Ngati Tikayerekeza mlingo Amowabu kwa chaka chomwecho anthu amene amasonyeza ndalama za ulimi wa mtundu wa mchere mu Russia, kusiyana kwake, ngakhale pa nkhani ya mankhwala otsika mtengo adzakhala zoonekeratu. "Chakale" mafuta yotengedwa mu Russia Ndipafupifupi $ 15. Ndipo Saudi Arabia, ndi njira, ndipo ndi otsika mtengo - za 8. Komabe, pa kanjedza onsewa ndi malingaliro akatswiri 'mogwirizana. Choncho, malangizo okha pafupifupi.

Kodi deta posachedwapa, kwa chaka panopa ndi chiyani? Kuchuluka kapena mosinthanitsa, ali utachepa pafupifupi mitengo ya zinthu mafuta shale US? 2014 - chaka cha kugwa mu mitengo dziko lapansi "golide wakuda". Kodi pali ubale uliwonse pakati pa mayendedwe a mafuta shale ndi kukuchititsa zimenezi msika?

Maganizo a akatswiri pa nkhani imeneyi amazipanga osiyana. Choyamba, ndi njira zosiyana kwambiri kuwerengera ndalama. Muyeso imene imapangitsa kwambiri kutsutsana - msonkho m'zigawo.

Kapena opanda msonkho?

Ena chuma ziwathandiza mafuta shale mu United States, kuganizira mfundo yakuti kupanga ake umamumvera msonkho osachepera. Komabe, nkhani ndi mankhwala ofanana opangidwa ndi njira za makolo, m'pofunika kupereka chindapusa onse. Ubwino Zoonadi poyerekezera shale mafuta. Mu Russia, mwachitsanzo, komanso m'mayiko ena ambiri, exporting ndi "golide wakuda" lolingana amalipiritsa pamwambapa.

Ngati US ndi mayiko ena zizindikiro za misonkho anali ofanana, ndiye, ngakhale ife kuti kanjedza mu 2012, malinga ndi akatswiri, mafuta American adzakhala ndi ndalama wosakongola kwambiri. Tsopano mankhwala slate ku USA, chifukwa ubwino msonkho ingakhale, akatswiri kunena, mtengo wa padziko $ 50 kapena zochepa.

Poyankha, pali maganizo kuti mtundu yoyenera milandu moponya US - muyezo omwe si kwambiri mawu a kuwerenga pa mtengo mafuta, monga slate mankhwala opangidwa mu US, makamaka lolunjika pa msika zoweta. Ndipo chifukwa amakhoma misonkho American okha "tisalole" okha wotchipa mafuta.

azimuth kuchepetsa ndalama?

Pakati Akatswiri nkhani yolembedwa kuti pa zaka United States mtengo wa mafuta shale kugwa. Chifukwa cha mfundo - patsogolo zokolola workability. Maganizo a akatswiri pa nkhani imeneyi anagawa. Pali Ziwerengero malinga ndi zomwe mbiya ya mafuta shale tsopano kugulitsidwa ku America za $ 48 - ndipo kwenikweni poyerekeza pafupifupi dziko, akatswiri analemba mu 2012. Koma kusintha kwa kufufuma - mfundo yake ikutsimikiziranso kuchepetsa ndalama yopanga. Pokhapokha Inde, amavomereza kuti chiwerengero cha United States mu 2012 inali yofanana ndi ambiri padziko lonse (pambuyo pa zonse, Achimereka - mtsogoleri yamphamvu ya msika lonse). Kachiwiri, ngati ife kuganizira mafuta yotengedwa subsoil, osati kuchokera shale ndi processing awo.

profitability kupanga ndi mtengo wa mafuta

Kodi mtengo wa mafuta shale mu United States, mayiko ena ndi mitengo dziko lapansi "golide wakuda"? Maganizo a akatswiri, ndipo nthawi ndi yosiyana kwambiri. Koma m'pofunika kuphunzira kuti apeze njira zawo zinthu zokhudza mtengo wa mafuta shale. 2014 alinso osokoneza kwambiri mawu a mitengo mafuta. Tsopano iwo alibe chidwi kwambiri. Will kukula - basi palibe amene anganene.

Akatswiri OPEC, makamaka amakhulupirira kuti ngati mitengo mafuta dziko kwa nthawi yaitali adzatsala pansipa madola 90 pa mbiya, ndiye kuti ntchito ya theka la US "shale" mabungwe adzakhala opanda pake. Nawonso akatswiri IHS amakhulupirira kuti malonda adzasunga mafuta kupanga kufunika, ngakhale mitengo dziko kugwa madola 57 pa mbiya. Ena amanyengerera mu kufufuza umafuna, International Energy Agency. Akatswiri a dongosolo lino, m'zigawo za mafuta shale mu US adzakhala opindulitsa kwambiri ngati mitengo dziko musalekane pansipa $ 80 pa mbiya. Akatswiri pa Citigroup, nayenso, khulupirirani kuti kukhalabe "slate" makampani mu United States adzakhala ndalama zokwanira madola 75.

Pali chidwi Baibulo: ngati mitengo mafuta dziko adzakhala kuchepa, ndi mabungwe US, ikubala "golide wakuda" chifuniro njira imodzi kapena wina, anakakamizika Sinthani m'munsi sayansi kuti kudula mtengo. Akatswiri amene ali pafupi view ino amakhulupirira kuti "shale mafuta" makampani ali ndi kuthekera kwambiri pa nkhani imeneyi. luso alipo, iwo amakhulupirira, ambiri experimental ndi chiwerengero cha mbali ya dzuwa ndi otsika ngakhale kwa anthu ogwiritsa ntchito pa ulimi mafuta mu njira ya makolo. M'kupita kwa nthawi, akatswiri kunena, Achimereka zingawonjezere workability. Chifukwa izi mtengo wa mafuta shale mu United States angakhudzidwe. Malinga Accenture bungwe kuwerengetsa, ndalama zogwirizana amagwa ndi 40%.

Mbiya ichokere

Lang'anani, mwa akatswiri si zachilendo mawonedwe: ngakhale US shale mafuta mtengo kupanga ndi za $ 50, kupanga ake adzakhalabe, mulimonse, lipindulitsa pa makampani US. Koma pansi pa chikhalidwe chimodzi - pamene mitengo mafuta padziko zatsopano chiyambi cha chilimwe mu 2014 - za $ 110 pa mbiya. Only iwo sadzakhala kuganiza za momwe kuchepetsa ndalama mafuta shale. $ 80 Komabe, - panopa mtengo "golide wakuda". Ndiko kuti, ngati wina kutsatira maganizo amenewa Makampani American tsopano pafupi profitability. About KUSOWA misa Makampani koma kuweruza ndi nkhaniyo pa TV, komabe si.

zinthu mtengo

Kodi kanthu, mafuta shale amapangidwa kodi zinthu? Mtengo mtengo wa mfundo zomwe anatsimikiza zochokera zili njira yopanga mu m'zigawo "golide wakuda"?

Pakati kwambiri mawu a mtengo wa mavuto - moyo wa zitsime. Mfundo yakuti mafuta shale ndi ncho ndi luso chosiyana poyerekeza ndi chitukuko cha madipoziti chikhalidwe. Kawirikawiri, ntchito kuchokerako bwino wina ndi kangapo mofulumira. Ndipo chifukwa zida waikidwa kwa kupanga mafuta shale, patangopita chitukuko cha gwero patchalitchi amafunika kapena thanani chifukwa kuvala, kapena kusamukira ku zinthu zina. Izi, kumene, akhozanso kukopeka ndi ndalama ndithu.

Chinthu china chimene - chakuya shale mafuta. Komanso kupeza madzi abwino pafupi, umene ukugwira m'zigawo "golide wakuda" ndi ntchito ya umisiri yoyenera. Malinga kuzama kwa ndalama gwero la siyana kwambiri.

Yotsatira kwambiri chinthu - adequacy mtengo kuwunika shale nkhokwe. Izo zikhoza kukhala kuti ndalama anapanga pamaziko a Zoneneratu chidaliro alibe nthawi kulipira mu Popeza kuti mafuta chabe kutha pa munda yeniyeni. Pali chitsanzo chidwi - mu Los Angeles Times anatuluka buku limene limanena kuti mmodzi wa minda mafuta m'tsogolo mawu California ndi leni kugawanika maulendo 25.

Chinthu china chimene - pamaso moyandikana ndi madipoziti chimodzimodzi madipoziti shale mpweya. chakuti, malinga ndi akatswiri ena, komanso dongosolo kungabweretse profitability, ngati kokha kupangidwa mitundu onse a mafuta.

Ziyembekezo "shale zisinthe"

Komabe, mosasamala chimene manambala amasonyeza mtengo wa mafuta shale mu United States, 2013 ndi 2014 ankatanthauza wothawa America m'zigawo mchere ndi magwero zina.

Malinga ndi Zoneneratu wa akatswiri osiyanasiyana, ndi maulamuliro, ndi zizindikiro mudzakhala mu zaka kudza. Mwachitsanzo, Energy Information Administration (maofesi a nthambi ku USA) amakhulupirira kuti mu 2019 ulimi wa mafuta shale mu US lidzafika migolo miliyoni 9,5 tsiku (tsopano - pafupifupi 3 miliyoni).

Zina mwa zinthu zimene zingathandize mabungwe ku United States kukhala - taonera kale mwa ife pamwamba azimuth ndi gawo kochepa ka madipoziti zina. Ngati gawo mwachizolowezi akhoza kuthandiza zaka zambiri, muyezo mlingo kwa shale - zaka 3-5. Panthawi imeneyi, mafuta mu gwero bwino akhoza zatha 90% kapena zambiri.

Amaneneratu ngakhale akatswiri American okha za chiyembekezo chitukuko cha "shale" Ndiwe wosiyana kwambiri. Chitsanzo yosavuta. Kuti ndi Energy Information Administration amaneneratu kuti mmodzi wa waukulu madipoziti US - Bakken - 2040 ulimi wa mafuta shale adzakhala miliyoni 1 migolo tsiku. Pa nthawi yomweyo, monga mwa anayambitsa ziyenera nthambi Post Mpweya, chizindikiro kwa Bakken si zoposa 73 sauzande. Mbiya. Kusiyana kwa Zoneneratu - kuposa tenfold. Pali kusiyana pakati pa akuti nyumba awiri komanso kulemekeza nkhokwe ena a mafuta shale ku California. Mwa njira, mu zina, Energy Information Administration kwambiri timalembanso Zoneneratu ake kumunda mafuta. Mwachitsanzo, chiwerengero chiwerengero ndi 96%. Komabe, monga mmene akatswiri ena, ndalama, zochita za momwe aganyali makampani, zikhoza motsogozedwa kwa Mapa choyamba.

Komabe, akatswiri analimbikitsa kusafulumira mfundo ndi amaneneratu. M'pofunika mmene iwo kukhazikitsa luso bwino kuonetsetsa waphindu ndi, Chofunika kwambiri, ndi zina zachilengedwe wochezeka kupanga mankhwala. Chinthu chofunika kwambiri pa chitukuko cha mafakitale American mu chitukuko cha madipoziti zina "golide wakuda" nayonso lonse mitengo mafuta.