2008 - Crisis ku Russia ndi ku dziko, zotsatira zake kwa chuma padziko lonse. The padziko lonse ndalama vuto la 2008: zimayambitsa ndi zinthu

Mu 2008, mavuto a yosangalatsa dziko. Chiyambi cha mavuto azachuma dziko linayamba ndi kuwonongeka malonda akhalire. The chipongwe kuchokera January 21 mpaka 22 pa kuphana chokha chokha. Zinagwa osati katundu mitengo, komanso masheya a makampani amene akhala zikukhalira bwino. Anataya katundu, ngakhale mabungwe akuluakulu monga Russian "Gazprom". Pasanapite atagwa magawo pa msika mafuta dziko unayamba kugwa mu mtengo wa mafuta. Pa m'misika katundu analowa nthawi ya mavuto amene wasiya chizindikiro chidwi m'misika chofunika. Ngakhale zoyesayesa za chuma kulungamitsa zinthu (iwo analengeza kusintha mitengo katundu) January 28, dziko lonse anatha kusunga lotsatira kuwonongeka malonda akhalire.

Vutoli linayamba?

Mu 2008, mavuto a sanayambe pa January 21 ndi magawo kugwa, ndi wina 15 January. Citigroup banki gulu analemba kuchepetsa phindu, amene anali kutsogolera chachikulu kuchepetsa phindu la magawo pa New York Stock Kusinthanitsa. Zinachitika zochitika izi:

• The Dow Jones index zidagwa 2.2%.

• Standard & Osauka a - 2,51%.

• Nasdaq gulu - 2,45%.

Only patapita masiku 6 zotsatira za kusintha mtengo akuwonetseredwa okha pa katundu wamalonda ndi kwakhudza zinthu padziko lonse. Ambiri mwa osewera ndalama msika ataona kuti kwenikweni, makampani ambiri samaona bwino. Mkulu kuchuluka kwa capitalization, mkulu mtengo wa magawo tucked aakulu zomvetsa. Akatswiri ambiri a zachuma kumbuyo mu 2007 ananeneratu mavuto mu 2008. Ife ankati mu Russia patapita zaka ziwiri anagwa pa nthawi yovuta chifukwa chakuti chuma cha msika mkati ndipo osati wotopa. Pakuti lonse chuma sichikuyenda sikhala pa kale nthawi.

Likulengeza ya mavuto a padziko lonse mu 2008 ndi mmene zinthu

Mavuto padziko lonse cha 2008 ndi osachepera anayamba ndi kugwa kwa kuphana katundu, koma preconditions kwa zikamera ake anali kwambiri. Magawo kugwa anali kokha chenjezo mbendera za mkhalidwe pompopompo kusintha. chofunika overproduction ndi chidwi kudzikundikira likulu chinalembedwa mu dziko. Kusinthana Kusakhazikika anasonyeza kuti panali mavuto ena ndi kugulitsa katundu. Kuonongeka zotsatirazi ulalo mu chuma dziko wakhala dera la kupanga. kusintha Global mu chuma, chimene 2008 anabweretsa mavuto a kwambiri bwanji miyoyo ya anthu wamba.

Chifukwa chuma cha padziko lonse anali yodziwika ndi zinthu kumene mwayi msika ndi chiyembekezo anali wotopa kwathunthu. Ngakhale luso kukuza kupanga ndi kupezeka kwa ndalama kupeza ndalama wakhala mabvuto kwambiri. Kale mu 2007 kunali kotheka kusunga kugwa kwa ndalama ya kalasi ntchito m'mayiko monga America ndi UK. Kuchepetsa misika sadzachitanso anatha muli kuwonjezeka onse ogula ndi kubweza kukongoza. zinthu kunakula pamene zinali zoonekeratu kuti anthu simungathe ngakhale chidwi pa ngongole.

The yoyamba m'mbiri ya anthu mavuto padziko lonse

Mu nthawi kuchokera 2008 mpaka 2009, mayiko ambiri a ku dziko anakumana ndi mavuto ndi zachuma, zomwe zinachititsa kuti apeze udindo wa chodabwitsa cha "padziko lonse". Anakumbukira kwa nthawi yaitali mavuto 2008 zakhudza osati maiko capitalist, komanso chuma cha mayiko pambuyo zokomera. Last amayambiranso mu dziko mpaka 2008, monga mwaunyinji anagwa 1929-1933. Pa nthawi imeneyo zinthu zinali zoipa kwambiri moti padziko m'mizinda ikuluikulu American anakula midzi ya makatoni, kuyambira mbali yaikulu ya anthu chifukwa cha ulova sakanakhoza malo malipiro moyo. Limatchula lililonse m'dziko la dziko kupeza ndi zotsatira aliyense wa anthu.

Pang'ono coexistence chuma chikuyendera pa nkhondo, kudalira ambiri madera a dola ndi udindo padziko lonse US mu msika lonse monga ogula ndi kwachititsa chakuti America mavuto mkati, "kusindikizidwanso" mu miyoyo ya pafupifupi maiko onse. Kunja chifukwa cha "chimphona zachuma" okha China ndi Japan. mavutowo sanali ngati zosayembekezereka. zinthu maluwa pang'onopang'ono mwadongosolo. Pa kugwa mwina chuma anasonyeza amphamvu m'mwamba azimuth. Komanso, United States m'chaka cha 2007, anakwanitsa m'munsi chidwi mlingo pa 4,75%. Ndi zachilendo mtendere nthawi, chodabwitsa ali zinaonedwa buyout speculators achikhazikitso. Akuti za mavuto kudza chakuti anachita mu ndalama msika kuchepetsa mitengo mu United States ngati kulibe. Kodi chinachitika mu mothamanga-kuti vutoli - ndi imodzi mwa muyezo magawo oyambirira chodabwitsa basi. Mavuto limati imeneyi kale, koma obisika ndipo musataye ndi ankaona. Pamene chophimba wakhala ankatembenukira ndi dziko kuwona leni vuto, ndi mantha wayamba. Panalibe kanthu kubisa, ndipo zimenezi zinachititsa kuti kugwa kwa chuma limati kwambiri.

2008 mavuto azachuma padziko lonse

Makhalidwe yaikulu ya mavuto ndi zotsatira zake za khalidwe wamkulu aliyense boma la dziko. Pa nthawi yomweyo pali kusiyana zofunika ali achilendo aliyense dziko. Mwachitsanzo, kuwonjezereka zakuthwa GDP chinalembedwa mu 9 la mayiko 25 a dziko. Mu China, chithunzi anaimirira ndi 8.7%, pamene India - 1.7%. Ngati tikambirana mayiko pambuyo Union, GDP anakhalabe khola mu Azerbaijan ndi ku Belarus, Kazakhstan ndi Kyrgyzstan. The World Bank lolunjika pa chakuti vuto la 2008 zinachititsa kuti dontho ambiri GDP mu 2009 kuti 2.2% mu dziko. M'mayiko otukuka, zimakwana anali 3.3%. M'mayiko ndi maiko ndi misika akutulukira palibe kuchepa unkachitika, ndi kukula osauka, ngakhale lalikulu, 1.2 okha%.

Kuya kwa kugwa mu GDP anali zimasiyana malinga dziko. Nkhonyayo lalikulu anabwera Ukraine (dontho anali 15,2%) ndi Russia (7.9%). Izi zayambitsa kuchepa mpikisano wonse wa mayiko mu msika lonse. Ukraine ndi Russia, amene anali kuyembekeza kwa asilikali ndiponso anthu malamulo msika zowawa mavuto aakulu kwambiri zachilengedwe umoyo ndi zachuma. States kuti ankakonda kusunga gulu, kapena malo amphamvu mu chuma, anazunzidwa "chipwirikiti cha zamalonda" mosavuta. Izi China ndi India, Brazil ndi Belarus, Poland. Vuto la 2008 ndi osachepera kuika chizindikiro ena pa aliyense wa dziko, koma kulikonse kumene iye anali mphamvu zake ndi dongosolo payekha.

Chuma mavuto padziko lonse mu Russia: chiyambi

Zimayambitsa mavuto 2008 ku Russia sikuti anali kunja chilengedwe, komanso mkati. Kokani kalipeti pansi pa mapazi a limati kwambiri ndi kuchepa kwa mitengo mafuta ndi zitsulo. Pansi nkhonya anali unaperekedwa osati kwa mafakitale. N'zochititsa chidwi kukula zinthu chifukwa cha liquidity otsika ndalama kundipatsako kwa dziko. Vuto linayamba mu 2007, nthawi kuchokera September mpaka October. Izi zinali bwino mbendera chakuti ndalama ku mabanki Russian watha. Kuuza mwa nzika kupeza ngongole nthawi zina kuposa kotunga zilipo. Vuto la 2008 ku Russia zinali zodzaza ndi chakuti zoweta mabungwe a zachuma anayamba kubwereka ndalama kunja pa chidwi. Mu nkhani iyi, Bank Central, Russia akufuna mlingo wa 10% kwa refinancing. Kale ndi August 1, 2008 kukula kwa ngongole kunja kwa dzikoli anakwana madola mabiliyoni 527. Ndi isanayambike wa padziko lonse mavuto, kugwa kwa yemweyo chaka, Western mayiko pa zinthu anasiya ndalama Russia.

The vuto lalikulu la Russia - ndi liquidity ndalama

Kwa Russia, iwo anapanga ndalama liquidity vuto la 2008. The zifukwa za chikhalidwe ambiri, monga dontho mu magawo, ndi sekondale. Ngakhale kukula wapachaka wa ndalama ruble kulemera kwa zaka 10 pa 35-60%, ndalama alibe mphamvu. Pamene mavuto padziko lonse cha 2008 yekha zichitikadi, kutsogolera mayiko akhala anapanga pa boma zina zokhudza. Choncho, $ 100 GDP aliyense boma limafanana zosachepera 250-300 USD banki ya chuma. Mu zina mawu, chiwerengero chuma a mabanki mu 2.5-3 nthawi kuposa okwana mtengo wa GDP a. Chiŵerengero 3 1 zimapangitsa dongosolo la ndalama aliyense limati mkhola ndi kulemekeza kusintha zakunja komanso mkati. Mu Russia, pamene mavuto azachuma inayamba mu 2008, 100 rubles ya GDP nkhani zosaposa 70-80 chuma rubles. Uku 20-30% zosakwana ndalama okwanira GDP. Zimenezi zinachititsa kuti imfa ya pafupifupi onse liquidity a dongosolo banki mu boma, mabanki anasiya kukongoza. A glitch yaing'ono kugwira ntchito kwa zachuma linapuwalanso moyo wa dziko lonse. Muzochitika mu dziko, zimene zinabweretsa mavuto a 2008 ndi zinadzala ndi kubwerezabwereza bola ngati dziko vuto ndalama liquidity sati kwathunthu kutheratu.

Bank chapakati Russia chinali chifukwa cha vutoli

Vuto la 2008 ku Russia zinachitika wamkulu mmene chifukwa mkati zinthu. chikoka kunja kuchuluka kokha mgwirizano mu dziko. Pa nthawi imene Bank ku Central anaganiza kulera chiwongola dzanja, anagwa zikuchepa mlingo wa ulimi. chiwerengero cha defaults mu gawo weniweni ngakhale pamaso panthawi imene ranged pakati pa 2% akuwonetseredwa vuto la 2008. Chakumapeto 2008, Bank ku Central kumawonjezera mlingo refinancing 13%. Yokonzekera izo zimayenera kukwaniritsa okwanira ndi akumufuna. Ndipotu izi zachititsa kuti adzauka pa mtengo wa ngongole yaing'ono, sing'anga ndi ntchito mseri (18-24%). Ngongole akhala unaffordable. Chiwerengero cha defaults chawonjezeka 3 zina chifukwa kulephera kwa nzika abweze ngongole kwa mabanki. Pofika chaka cha 2009, kuchuluka defaults mu dziko kufika 10. Kodi zotsatira za chisankho pa mlingo chidwi wakhala kuchepa lakuthwa m'mavoliyumu kupanga ndi kukatseka nambala yambiri ya malonda kudutsa dzikoli. Zimayambitsa mavuto 2008, zomwe mokulirapo dziko wakhazikitsa yokha, zinachititsa chakuti chuma anakomoka a m'mayiko osauka ndi kufunika mkulu wa ogula ndi amphamvu ntchito zachuma. Kupewa zotsatira za chisokonezo padziko lonse kuti asamalidwe ndi kulowetsedwa chipika chuma chuma cha boma ku mabanki odalirika. Kugwa msika wogulitsa sanagone ndi limakhudza kwambiri pa boma, monga chuma kampani ali pafupifupi panalibe ubale kwa malonda mu msika katundu, ndi 70% ya magawo wokwatibwa ndi ndalama zakunja.

Zimayambitsa chikhalidwe lonse zamavuto dziko

Pa mavuto 2008-2009 zakhudza pafupifupi gawo la ntchito za limati, makamaka mafuta, ndi zimene zinali mwachindunji zokhudzana ndi chuma mafakitale. Nthawi azimuth langokhala, limene bwinobwino wamkulu, kuyambira 2000. Mitengo ya agro-uphungu ndi "golide wakuda" ananyamuka. Mtengo wa mbiya ya mafuta anafika pachimake mu July ndi anaima pa mbiri $ 147. Ambiri a mtengo wa mtengo mafuta konse ananyamuka. Ndi mtengo kuchuluka kwa mafuta anawuka pa mitengo golide, amene anapanga kukayikitsa ndalama kupambana akumane zimenezi.

Kwa miyezi 3 mtengo wa mafuta anagwa $ 61. Kuyambira October kuti November, panali kuchepa patsogolo mu mtengo wa $ 10. Kugwa kwa mtengo wa mafuta anali chimayambitsa sakuyendetsa akalozera ndi mlingo wa mowa. Mu nthawi yomweyo, kubweza mavuto US anayamba. Banks anapatsidwa ndalama kwa anthu kugula nyumba kuchuluka 130% ya phindu. Chifukwa cha kuchepekela mfundo wamoyo, borrowers analephera kubweza ngongoleyo awo ndi ina ngongole musati alipo. Miyala ya nzika US chabe atasiya pamaso pathu. Zotsatira za mavuto 2008 unakhudzadi awo pa America ambiri.

anali womaliza "dontho" n'chiyani?

Kuwonjezera pa zochitika tafotokozazi, vuto kumanzere chizindikiro ena zimene zinachitika mu dziko mu chisanadze mavuto nthawi. Mwachitsanzo, mungathe kukumbukira zolowa ineligible zikutanthauza malonda zonse imodzi yaikulu French mabanki Societe Generale. Jerome Karvel osati mwadongosolo ndalama kampani, iye anasonyeza anthu zolakwa zonse mu ntchito ya mabungwe zopezera ndalama. Zinthu anasonyezeratu mmene ufulu amalonda zonse akhoza kusamalira chuma cha makampani kuti ganyu iwo. Izi anakhudza mavuto 2008. The zifukwa zinthu zambiri kugwirizana ndi piramidi ndalama Bernard Madoff, amene walimbikitsa kachitidwe zoipa mu kaundula wa padziko lonse wa magawo.

Kulimbikitsa padziko lonse ndalama vuto la 2008 agflation. Izi ndi kuwonjezeka lakuthwa mu mitengo ya ulimi. Price Index FAO mwadongosolo kuchuluka pakati kuchepa padziko lonse malonda akhalire. Zolemba malire pachimake index anafikira mu 2011. Companies onse pa dziko pofuna mwanjira zisinthe awo anayamba kukhazikika wotuluka yowopsa kwambiri zoti anabweretsa imfa kwambiri. Tinganene kuchepetsa voliyumu ya zogula mankhwala magalimoto. Kuuza zidagwa 16%. Mu America, zimakwana anali - 26% zinachititsa mu kuchepa kufunika kwa mankhwala zitsulo ndi mafakitale zina.

Chinthu chomaliza pa njira chisokonezeko anali kuwonjezeka mlingo LIBOR ku America. zinachitikira mogwirizana ndi kunyazitsa ya dollar mu zapakati pa 2002 ndi 2008. Vuto n'lakuti pa nsonga ya chuma ndi chitukuko ndi amazipanga kudya zosaposa zingakhale kuganizira njira ina dola.

Zotsatira za mavuto 2008 pa chuma cha padziko lonse

The zachuma nthawi ndi umamumvera zokondweretsa Yehova. Pali mbiri ya zinthu zimene kusintha malangizo a moyo zachuma. 2008 mavuto azachuma yoyendetsedwa kwathunthu boma la chuma cha padziko lonse. Ngati inu mukuyang'ana pa zinthu cose, chuma dziko pambuyo chisokonezeko wakhala yunifolomu kwambiri. Malipiro m'mayiko otukuka, omwe yafupika nthawi ya kusowa, pafupifupi kwathunthu anachira. Izi zinathandiza pa nthawi ina kuthandiza chitukuko cha mafakitale dziko m'mayiko capitalist. A nyamuka chidwi chinaoneka mayiko amene Mukungoyamba kukhala. Kwa iwo, dziko maganizo anali wapadera mwayi kuzindikira awo angathe ya padziko lonse msika. Kukhala panalibe ubale mwachindunji ku misika katundu ndi kusinthitsa ndalama dollar, mayiko underdeveloped mulibe kuthana ndi vutolo. Anatembenuka mphamvu zawo chitukuko komanso kutukuka.

malo osungira anali mu US, ndi EU ndi UK, zimene zinachititsa kuti kuwonjezeka mafakitale. Zopangapanga chigawo zinayamba kusintha, likupitirirabe masiku ano. Mayiko ambiri ndikusinthidwa ndondomeko zawo, amene amaloledwa kumanga chuma wangwiro m'tsogolo. Pakuti mayiko ena, vutoli anali ndi chidwi kwambiri zotsatira zabwino. Mwachitsanzo, m'mayiko amene atachotsedwa ndalama zakunja mogwirizana ndi zimene zikuchitika ku dziko nawo mwayi kuthandiza ntchito zapakhomo zachuma. Opanda chakudya mfundo zochokera kunja, boma anali kuthira mu miyeso bajeti mu gawo zoweta, popanda zomwe n'zosatheka kuonetsetsa mlingo osachepera chitonthozo cha moyo wa nzika. Choncho, malangizo a chuma, zomwe poyamba anatsalira kunja woyendera nthambi ya chikoka, lero losandulizika.

Kodi zili mu 2015, akhala chinsinsi. Ena chuma kukhulupirira kuti zinthu ziliri mu dziko - ndi mtundu wa Echo zamavuto mu 2008, mmodzi wa zokongola koma bloomed mu ulemerero wake onse zotsatira za maganizo dziko. Zilinso amatikumbutsa mavuto 2008. Zifukwa converge:

• kuchepa mtengo wa mbiya ya mafuta;
• overproduction;
• kuwonjezeka mlingo ulova mu dziko;
• Ruble zoopsa kuchepa kwa liquidity;
• zapadera dontho gapped Dow Jones index ndi S & P.

Malinga ndi akatswiri, zinthu apitiriza kuvutika.