Kukula kwa yuro (2014) ku Russia

Pa miyezi yochepa yoyambirira ya 2014 ruble depreciated ndi akuluakulu ndalama dziko, kuphatikizapo yuro. Kodi umodzi European ndalama poyerekezera Russia m'tsogolo? Tingayembekezere kuti yuro adzapitiriza kukula? Izo zonse kumatengera zifukwa zambiri, chikhalidwe chuma ndi ndale.

Yang'anira ndipo kulowera

Kodi tikuona pa nsalu yotchinga anasonyeza mfundo kuwombola - zotsatira za malonda ndalama unachitika ndi nawo Bank wa Central. Mtengo anasonyeza manambala - osakaniza amadza chifukwa cha chiwerengero chachikulu cha ndalama njira, kuphatikizapo amene zosungidwazo zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi mabungwe lonse zachuma, kuphatikizapo Bank wa Central. Chimodzi mwa zida waukulu kusonkhezera Russian banki pa msika - ndi chovomerezeka malonda gulu. Ngati ruble a kwambiri saganizira kapena kukambapo, Bank ku Central akuyamba kugula kapena kugulitsa ndalama kusunga mfundo chofunika. Chikuchitika ndalama alowererepo kuteteza amphamvu kwambiri depreciation wa ruble lapansi.

Pambuyo buku lake kuposa $ 350 miliyoni zokha, ndi kulowera mwa malire ake ankatembenukira m'mwamba ndi masenti 5. Chotero zochita za Bank ku Central - chinthu wamba chuma, koma miyezi ya 2014 magulu awa anali ambiri unilateral. Kusinthitsa ndalama gulu anali ankatembenukira, kusonyeza kufooka azilandira ruble lapansi. kanjedza ndi wosatsutsika: poyerekeza ndi mfundo za chaka chatha mlingo wa Russian "mtengo" poyerekezera ndi ndalama yaikulu dziko, anagwa ndi 10 peresenti. Chotsani Mapa ya yuro ndi dollar kukula kumaoneka.

Factor kukula zachuma

M'zaka zaposachedwapa, ndi ruble, monga ulamuliro, kusunthira mmwamba ndi pansi ndalama mamba pafupi malumikizanidwe mwachindunji ndi mitengo mafuta. Koma tsopano, izo zimatengera pa mlingo wa zizindikiro zina zazikulu za citukuko. Choyamba, ndi monga kukula. Ngakhale mtengo mbiya ya mafuta khola pa $ 100 ndipo zambiri, GDP Russia Kuchuluka pang'onopang'ono. Mapa cha 2014 - ponso za 1.5 peresenti, amene ali m'munsi poyerekezera ndi dziko.

mitengo Low n'kogwiritsa zimakhudzira pa ruble kusinthitsa ndalama kwa ndalama kutsogolera. kukula kwa yuro mu 2014 motsutsa banknotes Russian, motero, akhoza kukhala yokwera 10. Komabe, phindu lenileni la ruble ndi yuro kwa nzika wamba Russian, malinga ndi akatswiri, ndi otsika: mtengo wa uphungu kwambiri ndi zimenenso ndalama dziko. Mosiyana Mwachitsanzo, ku 90, pamene Tags mtengo kwambiri m'masitolo anali "Y. e. ". Pali kuthekera yekha nyamuka ku mtengo wa katundu, koma osapitirira 10 cent pa mofanana.

Akuluakulu akukhulupirira

Boma ukufanizidwa ndi Unduna wa Zachuma nthawi yomweyo sayembekezera mavuto chilichonse kuchepetsa zikusintha mtengo wa ruble mu msika kuwombola zakunja 2014. Malinga akuluakulu a dipatimenti iyi, akuluakulu kusinthasintha kusinthitsa ndalama palibe wapadera malo chuma, ndi zake n'kotheka, njira imodzi kapena wina, adzakhalabe mu kulowera anapereka Bank wa Central. Komabe, Unduna wa Zachuma kupewa kulankhula za chiyembekezo cha kachitidwe n'zosiyana: sizidzachitika yuro ndi dola, ndi kulimbitsa ruble lapansi.

Akatswiri ena amakhulupirira kuti Russian ndalama msika wabweza bata zisakuyenda bwino. Pa nkhani imeneyi, gombe lalikulu mapulani 2015 kuti amusiyitse kuwunika ruble ndi kusinthana kwa kufufuma kutsata - ndi anatengera ntchito zomwe munakonza kanjedza chuma cha kukula kwa mitengo ogula. Zikuchitika, izi zikutanthauza kuvomereza kuti ndalama national mu "akuyandama ufulu" koma anapatsidwa zochita zabwino M'zaka zaposachedwapa Phokoso ake amphamvu zidzachitika, monga zoyembezereka za zachuma, izo siziyenera.

Business ochenjera

Mosiyana ndi mawu ofala mu mabungwe a boma, mabungwe payekha, makamaka mabanki safuna kukhala wachidaliro. Akatswiri ena, sizikugwirizana ndi Unduna wa Zachuma a nyumba, ndi chifooke ruble ndi - ndi zokhudza zonse zodabwitsazi. Iwo anayamba osati zokhazo, koma miyezi ingapo yapitayo. mitengo mafuta azungu ziribe mphamvu mwachindunji ruble lapansi. Ndi chinachake: kugwa kufunika mu ndalama mitundu m'mayiko osauka, M'malo mwake, pali kuwonjezeka kutchuka dola, yuro.

Mu Russia, ndi njira, kumabungwe kwambiri chuma akhoza zimachitika kapangidwe ka dziko ndi mtundu n'kuchiumba. Izi azimuth - lonse ndi zogwirizana ndi mavuto padziko lonse, kenako chuma akutulukira si osauka mwakhama kwambiri. Komanso, zinthu ndi zovuta chifukwa chakuti ndalama kamodzi msika akuyamba "ulendo", ndiye kugulitsa rubles pa Polankhula. Pa mlingo wa ndalama zimene dziko la Russia, motero, zimakhudza chinthu maganizo. Makampani mwamwambo ankaona wosakhazikika ruble, ndi padera mu izo - yowopsa.

Koma ndibwino kusunga ku rubles

Ngakhale mumaganiza choimira mu akatswiri ndalama msika musati amalangiza Russia kuti ndalama mu ndalama zokwana mayuro. chakuti mabanki wathu kupereka ziwawa chidwi pa madipoziti ruble - pafupifupi 10% pa annum. Mudziko la ndalama zakunja makhalidwe amenewa akhala unatha. Mwachitsanzo, kulola ruble depreciate ngakhale 10%, ndiye Investor sadzatayikiridwa chilichonse. Poyerekezera panopa kufufuma zizindikiro ngati gawo akanatero Mulimonsemo zaphindu chimake ndalama yosungirako.

A kuchuluka kwa ndalama ndalama kwa chomwecho kwenikweni anataya kutembenuka ndi. Komatu, "masamu" si zoona ndithu, ngati munthu kupita ku dziko lina kapena ngati walandira malipiro, malingana ndi ndalama posinthana yachilendo. Popeza kuti kukula adzakhala yuro, 2014 TH chaka zikuwoneka wokongola kwambiri chifukwa kudzikundikira ndalama ndalama izi ndi cholinga kupita kunja.

Nkhani - ndi mawu a ku Ulaya

Ngati mlingo kuwombola zimadalira Ndondomeko ulamuliro - Bank ku Central la Russia, kuwuka kwa yuro, nayenso, makamaka anatsimikiza ndi Bank chapakati European ntchito. Tsopano kosamalira ndalama wakonda njira ndi zofewa ndi lamulo la msika ndipo simukopeka njira zachilendo mmene pa yuro. mfundo zimenezi kumathandiza kuti ena kusintha chuma eurozone kumayambiriro 2014. Ngati azimuth imeneyi, mlingo wa ndalama limodzi ndi banknotes zina dziko ndi Mwina mkulu kwambiri.

Ponena za malo ake a yuro ndi ruble, kudzakhala ndi mbali ya chinthu cha dola US. Njira ya ndalama Russian zimadalira ena awiri, panopa ndi cose kwambiri. N'zokayikitsa kuti yuro ndi dollar mu 2014 kwambiri kusiya kufunika kwa mfundo 1.4 (kunjenjemerako mphamvu sadzalola malamulo Bank ku Central). Choncho, ngati ndalama US lidzafika, mwachitsanzo, 36 rubles, mtengo wa European si upambana 50.

Zoneneratu

Akatswiri ena kuyembekezera ruble kulimbikitsa msika banki ndi mapeto a 2014, ndipo chifukwa nzika bwino kuti agonane zongopeka kugula ndalama zokwana mayuro. Chifukwa chidaliro anzake - mu ndondomeko Bank wa Central. Masiku oipa amene anapeza mu 2013, ayenera kusintha kolowera m'ma 2014. Pakati m'tsogolo manambala - 33 rubles pa dola, 43,5 - pa yuro. Izi ndi chifukwa zinthu zazikulu za citukuko: m'mayiko otukuka a EU chikuyembekezeka kuwonjezera mlingo wa kufunika kwa katundu chopangidwa mu Russia, komanso kumaonjezera kufunika kwa mafuta. Komabe, funso ngati kudzakhala nyamuka kutchulidwa mu yuro, Zoneneratu mu 2014 osati anakhudzidwa.

Palinso lomwe mu zinthu ziliri zachuma palibe kufunika zimamutchipitsa ndi ruble (monga chinachitika Mwachitsanzo, mu 2008). Ndiyeno panali kuchepa kwambiri GDP, ulova ananyamuka mofulumira, ndipo chifukwa devaluation anali kupulumutsa udzu Boma ambiri a zachuma Russian (makamaka apindulitsa za malonda). Komanso akatswiri kukhulupirira, nthawi kuti banki chapakati wakhala ndi devaluation pafupifupi $ 200 biliyoni, ndipo lero zingakhale bwino kutumiza ndalama zilipo ntchito zina.

geopolitics

Amadziwika kuti "ndalama amakonda chete". Choncho, mumaganiza aliyense mu chuma padziko lonse angamvetsere zochitika m'bwalolo ndale. Masiku ano, nkhani yaikulu mu dziko - izi zili padziko Ukraine. Ngati maganizo timakhala pakati pa Russia, Europe ndi ku United States kugwa, ndalama mitundu kudikira rollback kuti mfundo ya January ndi February. Komabe, ngakhale mu nkhani iyi, musayembekezere akuyamikira kwambiri ndi ruble ndi ndalama zakunja, popeza, kupatula chinthu cha mfundo akhala amadza ndithu mumaganiza zachuma kungathandize dola ndi yuro. 2014 Chaka The akhoza kwakukulukulu kudziwa zamoyo zina waukulu geopolitics posachedwapa.

Chinthu chachikulu kuti msika unali kusunthira

The zinthu zokhumudwitsa kwambiri kwa aliyense msika kuwombola yachilendo - ndi patsogolo. Movement mu msika, kaya ndi yuro kapena depreciation wa ruble, kupereka chizindikiro kwa ndalama kuchita chinachake, kutenga lingaliro lililonse. Komabe, ngati akatswiri onani, kumanga Zoneneratu yaitali pa mitengo kuwombola - ntchito wosayamika. N'kutheka kuti ndikulingalira malangizo, zambiri zimadalira zinthu zomwe kanthu kuganizira zovuta. Nkofunika kuti msika ophunzira ndi anthu kupeza zinthu molondola za njira kunachitika chuma.