Mtengo wa mafuta kupanga mmaiko. Mtengo mtengo wa mafuta mu dziko

Mafuta, zofanana ndi dola ndi golide, ndi wina wa levers wamphamvu kwambiri lamulo zachuma. Pakuti zingamuthandize miyala ya mafuta mowirikiza kuchitikira nkhondo ya pakati limati, ena mayunitsi boma m'malo mwa ena. Mphamvu mu dongosolo wake wa mafakitale gulu stranoobrazuyuschih monga yojambula m'dera lino kumabweretsa kudzafika malo zochitika za m'dzikoli. The kwambiri dziko akhoza kuchotsa "golide wakuda", m'munsi mitengo ya zinthu zake, wamkulu mwayi boma kupita patsogolo kwa chuma ndi kugonjetsa udindo amphamvu pa dziko msika.

Mtengo mtengo wa gwero la ulimi m'mayiko

Mtengo wa mafuta kupanga losiyana kwambiri ndi dziko. Mwachitsanzo, mu Saudi Arabia mafuta mitengo ya zinthu alibe upambana $ 10 pa mbiya. Mu Russia, chithunzi ichi ranges ku madola 30 40. Mu America n'kofunika m'madera ena chifikira mlingo wa madola 60-70. Ndi zinthu Canada wa munthu. Polemba mchenga mafuta uyenera kutaya pa dongosolo la madola 120-150 pa mbiya.

Kaya zinthu amaponya "shale zisinthe" mu United States zikuphedwa?

Vuto mitengo pa msika mafuta ndi mtengo wa mafuta kupanga maiko osiyanasiyana, makamaka United States, malinga ndi chiwerengero mokwanira lalikulu la akatswiri jeopardizes ndi "shale zisinthe". Ngati mtengo wa mbiya ya mafuta limatuluka pafupi ndi chizindikiro cha $ 80 posachedwapa, chimabala opanda pake. Ntchito kwa moyo wa yekha palibe akufuna. The mtengo wotsika wa golide wakuda ndi kukwera mtengo kwa ntchito pa chitukuko cha mafuta umatsegula njira ya dziko msika wa mayiko monga India ndi China. Ngati mtengo wa mphamvu ndi akutsikira ku mtengo wa $ 30, yaikulu wosewera mpira, monga Russia Adzakakamizika mwa msika. Ndi njira yokhayo yotulukira - ndiko chiyambi cha kukhazikitsa mayiko mafuta ndalama zawo popanda kutchula dola.

Kutsidya lina la ndalama ndi kuti mtengo anthu kupanga mafuta anafuulira m'mayiko si enieni. Mwadongosolo chitukuko cha madipoziti latsopano mchere, bwino ndipo kumachepetsa ndalama kupanga luso lake. M'mayiko ambiri akhoza kulimbana katundu apamwamba kwambiri ku kuchepa kwa mitengo mafuta dziko.

Table chitukuko mtengo wa mbiya ya mafuta m'mayiko

Tiyeni kuphunzira tebulo la mbiya ya mtengo mafuta mu lirilonse la maiko akutulutsa dziko.

Pagome zikuonekeratu kuti kudalira msika yonse ya mayiko mafuta akuona ngati ndi Saudi Arabia. Ndipo iye ndi ophunzira mwakhama mu OPEC, amene mtu akukana kuchepetsa voliyumu ya mafuta kupanga. Kugwa mu mitengo, imbaenda mantha limati ambiri, si wowopsa. akatswiri ambiri amanena kuti khalidwe akungofuna kuti adzawathamangitsa dziko ku m'bwalolo lonse la mpikisano waukulu.

Tebulo limasonyeza deta izo zikusonyeza mtengo wa mbiya ya mafuta popanda misonkho kwa chuma cha boma, ndi opanda mtengo wa ntchito excise, ndalama zina zazing'ono. Apa n'zotheka kuganizira mfundo yakuti mu Russia mtengo wa mafuta aumbike mwa 55% msonkho wa. Mu America, gawo ntchito imeneyi pafupifupi osati msonkho, ndipo chotero, makampani ndi chiyembekezo chabwino chitukuko ndi zinthu zabwino linanena bungwe pa msika lonse. thandizo ndi boma amagwira ntchito yofunika kwambiri.

Tsatanetsatane wa mtengo wa mafuta mu US

mu okhudza za boma la mtengo wa mafuta yosiyana kwambiri malingana ndi malo ndi mndandanda luso m'badwo kupanga ntchito. Choncho, mu 2012 akuluakulu American makampani migodi athera za $ 100 pa luso ntchito kupanga shale mafuta. Mu 2015, chithunzi ichi anaima mozungulira 30 dollars. Oyimira a makampani mafuta payekha mwamwayi kuti chifukwa cha kusintha mwadongosolo ndi yaitali sayansi yopanga mafuta, iwo anatha kukwaniritsa chithunzi cha $ 22 pa mbiya. Chisamaliro cha yogwira mafuta kubala mbewu ndalama theka zochepa. Pezani ndendende zimene mtengo wa mbiya ya mafuta mu United States, sizingatheke. Onse adzakhala akuoneka pa nthawi, ndi chitukuko cha zinthu pa msika mafuta.

Kodi ziyembekezo za US chiyani?

Kuyerekeza mtengo wa ulimi wa mbiya ya mafuta mu America, akatswiri ambiri Lekani kudabwa za izo, zimene ndendende dziko mtengo msika index ya ulimi wa mafuta adzakhala opanda pake boma. Malinga ndi kafukufuku, mmodzi wa mabungwe waukulu% 4 yekha wa mafuta opangidwa panthawi iri kutsogoloko profitability. madipoziti Large ku North Dakota ali lizigwira bwino ndi kupitiriza kukhala lero. Komanso, mosalekeza kufufuza madera atsopano ndi ziyenera a madipoziti angathe. Dera asonyeza wa United States - ndi District Mackenzie, kumene mtengo wa mbiya ya mafuta limatuluka pamwamba $ 28. Great chikoka pa mfundo US ali malo oonekera wa mafuta. Malinga ndi ziwerengero kuyambirira, kwa tsiku, ndi kumupatsa zosoŵa zonse boma kwa zaka zitatu zotsatira.

Ndilo mtengo wa mafuta kupanga mu Russia?

Mtengo wa mafuta ku Russia aumbike osati mwa kulunjika kupanga ake, ambiri a iwo wolungama ndalama m'munsichi. Ndalama zonse za ndalama akhoza kukhala amangosankha tisonyezeni Rosneft numeral 100%. Pa yomweyo 55% ya ndalama deducted pa boma malipiro excise msonkho, severance msonkho ndi msonkho wa kasitomu. 10% ya ndalama okwana ntchito pa minda kuyambirira kufufuza, unsembe zida mafuta kuboola mu kufufuza makasitomala ndi mapeto a mapangano ndi iwo. Kuwonjezera kwa ndalama okwana 8.4% ya mtengo wa mbiya ya kutumiza kwa makasitomala ndi 7.6% kwa amortization wa chuma onse Rosneft (makina, nyumba, zipangizo, zitsime, etc.). kampaniyo, kuwonjezera kupanga mphamvu, komabe amagulidwa ndi ku makampani lachitatu chipani, kulipira kwa processing wa osachepera 8,6% ya revenues. Net phindu pambuyo kugwiritsa ntchito "golide wakuda" ndi zosakwana 10%.

Mtengo wa mafuta ku Russia, ngakhale chithunzi ambiri amavomereza ranged ku madola 12 mpaka 25, mochuluka. Mogwirizana ndi mtengo wa pangano dziko kapena kugula ufulu ntchito, mtengo wa kumanga zofunikira kwa mulingo woyenera m'zigawo za mafuta, zimakwana zopezera osiyanasiyana $ 70 pa mbiya, lomwe ndi dongosolo la ukulu woposa wa America.

Chifukwa mayiko OPEC chiyani Sakuchepetserani zili mafuta ndi zotchipa?

Mtengo wa mafuta ku Saudi Arabia ndi wotsikitsitsa mu dziko. Izo zimasiyanasiyana mu osiyanasiyana kuchokera madola 4 5. Zimenezi zimathandiza boma kupirira drawdown kwambiri mitengo msika dziko. Kukana kuchepetsa m'badwo mphamvu gwero kwachititsa kuti dontho mu mtengo "golide wakuda". chisankho otere wolungama ndi mfundo yakuti osati Saudi Arabia komanso onse m'mayiko OPEC ali amadalira kotheratu makampani mafuta. Boma okha amene sadalira kupanga mafuta - ndi Indonesia, kumene phindu ndi kwaiye makampani zokopa alendo, makampani mpweya ndi macheka. Onse anthu ena OPEC Pamlingo wamkulu kapena wamng'ono, kupulumuka zikomo kwa mafuta. Malinga msinkhu wawo ranges ku 48 kuti 97%. Choncho mapeto: anapatsidwa mtengo wotsika mafuta m'mayiko osiyana nawo m'deralo, iwo sazunzika ku zinthu pa msika dziko. Kuchepetsa voliyumu ya ulimi, iwo amagunda chuma chake. Zochita anapangidwa pa n'zosiyana ndi: kwambiri yopanga mafuta, ndi bwino dziko palokha ndipo anthu ake.

Chifukwa kufunika kwa mafuta ikukula, ndi mtengo wa mafuta wagwa?

Mu zaka zingapo zapitazi, kusowa dziko mafuta chawonjezeka kangapo. Izi anali ntchito ndi chitukuko cha China ndi India. Mkulu chiwerengero cha kufunika zinachititsa chakuti m'ma chilimwe 2014 mtengo wa mafuta peaked pa $ 117. The vuto sanakhale kuwirikiza kawiri, ndi pakati pa mtengo yophukira pa mbiya anazembera ku $ 60. The "golide wakuda" monga izo zinali, ndi kukhala otchuka. Choona chidwi ndi kugwa mitengo mafuta si bwino wolungama pa zifukwa zachuma, boma anapitiriza kukhala, zofuna zawo kukula. Only mu China pa chaka chatha izo wamasulidwa pafupifupi mamiliyoni 30 magalimoto. Ndipotu ina chidwi ndi kuti mtengo wa mafuta pafupifupi sanasinthe dziko.

Kuwonjezeka kotunga outstripped kufunika kuwonjezeka

Popeza chidwi mu msika mafuta wakula, chifukwa cha kugwa mitengo, osalephera, anali kuwonjezeka mu buku la bwana zochuluka kuposa kufunika skaknuvshy. Mlingo wa gwero mphamvu ukuwonjezeka ntchito m'zigawo Saudi Arabia ndi ku United States. A chizindikiro pa mapangidwe mtengo wa mafuta amaika nkhani zandale ndi mkangano Russia ndi Ukraine. Mbiri imasonyeza kuti kusintha kulikonse mu geopolitics a mu dera zofunika za dziko kutsogolera ndi kuwonjezeka mu mitengo mphamvu.

Kuchepa mtengo mafuta kupanga dziko - palibe ndalama zina

Wamakono wa sayansi ya mafuta kupanga kwachititsa kuchepetsa mtengo wa mafuta. lingaliro ndi kuti exporting States anayenera ndichiyani phindu wabwino kwa zinthu. Mosiyana ndi zonse zimene timayembekezera, mtengo wa mafuta pa dziko msika anakomoka. Development wa gawo ndi kuchepetsa ndalama chitukuko mafuta zinachititsa kuti zomvetsa. The zifukwa zingapo:

• Zochotsa ziletso ndi Iraq, kuwonjezera gawo la mafuta ake pa msika lonse.
• Kubwezeretsa Libya ndi makampani ake mafuta.
• Makontena ku msika wa mayiko wa kuzembetsa mafuta pa mitengo yafupika.
• Kuwonjezeka yopanga mafuta sagwirizana nazo (shale, pa mchenga ndi katundu).

Kuchepetsa profitability kupanga mafuta

Kugwa mu mtengo sizingakhoze kuchitidwa kalekale. Kamodzi mu dziko ya mtengo wa mafuta adzakhala pafupifupi wofanana ndi mtengo wa mafuta pa msika, n'zotheka kuyembekezera atapangako. Apa ntchito mfundo yakuti aliyense boma lili yake atathana mtengo mafuta kupanga. kusintha mtengo kumakhudza padziko lonse ndalama za boma ndipo profitability kupanga mafuta. Ndipotu, zokayikitsa timathera kupanga mafuta Gulf limati. Ichi ndi chifukwa kuya ka malasha ndi umakhala pafupi m'dera la chitukuko cha mafuta kuti ogula mapeto. Ndalama za ntchito yomanga ndi kukonzanso ndi umisiri kochepa. The mtengo wapamwamba wa mafuta kupanga mu dziko mu America, monga ntchito yekha ndi chuma shale. Amakhala ovuta kwambiri kuzichita ndi ndalama kovuta. Kuyambira luso iye anakana pafupifupi dziko lonse. Malinga ndi akatswiri, ndi profitability umenewu mafuta adzatsala pa mlingo ngati dziko mtengo msika wa mbiya sangagwere pansipa $ 75. Ndipotu zimenezi sizili: ngakhale kuti mitengo apita pa chithunzi pa $ 50, America akupitiriza yogwira kukula kwa madipoziti mchere.

m'malo mapeto

Mtengo wa mafuta ku Russia kwambiri m'munsi kuposa mu America. Komabe, US akuchulukirachulukira yopanga mafuta, akatswiri mwachindunji zogwirizana ndi nkhondo ndale m'dziko masiku ano. Choncho, October 2014 buku kupanga mafuta anali miliyoni 8.9 mbiya, ndiyeno mu 2015 izo zakonzedwa kuonjezera miliyoni 9.4. Iwo undercurrents kudziwa zinthu pa dziko msika mafuta, mfundo zachuma, nthawi imeneyi kwina kwathunthu.