Mafuta aku Iran pa msika. Khalidwe la mafuta aku Iran. Kodi Iran amapereka mafuta

Kuchotsa ziletso mayiko ndi Iran, anawonjezera gwero lina la kotunga chimasanduka, mtengo umene uli kale otsika kwambiri. Aku Iran mafuta msika zingatanthauze iye, komanso makampani mayiko osiyanasiyana mafuta kugwira ntchito mu Middle East?

kuthekera Iran ndi

1976 chinali chaka yabwino mafuta makampani a dziko. Aku Iran Mafuta stably nazo ndalama migolo 6 miliyoni patsiku, ndipo mu November chaka chomwecho, chithunzi anafika n'kale lonse miliyoni 6.68. Pa nthawi okha Saudi Arabia, Soviet Union ndi United States anali opanga zikuluzikulu.

Kukwera anatsatira ndiye, ndipo kwa zaka 35 zapitazi, mafuta Iran konse yotengedwa owonjezera-magawo awiri pachimake cha m'ma 70s (ngakhale udindo waukulu nyimbo ndi mpweya), ngakhale kuti nkhokwe ya wakuda golide mu dziko zaka 15 zapitazo chinawonjezeka ndi pafupifupi 70% - ndi apamwamba kuposa anansi ake pa nthawi yomweyo.

Komabe, zimene zinachitikira zaka 1970 akadali amphamvu kukumbutsa zomwe mungathe mafuta makampani a Iran pambuyo zochotsa ziletso.

miyeso ogwira

United States ziletso kuti European Union ndi United Nations oletsa dziko kuyambira 2011, chifukwa kuchepetsa kwambiri kupanga mafuta mu Iran. Iwo sanali kutseka kwathunthu misika dziko, monga ena a ogula waukulu - China, India, Japan, Korea South ndi Turkey - anapitiriza kugula mabuku yaikulu ya mafuta aku Iran.

Komabe, mmene ziletso wakhala kwambiri. Makamaka, chiletso lalikulu umisiri yoti zinachititsa kuti kuwonongeka kwa boma luso maofesi a ulimi, amenenso yafupika khalidwe la mafuta aku Iran. Komanso, kuwonjezera pa chiletso EU za inshuwalansi Pamadzi woyikidwa zoletsa aakulu pa kuthekera katundu wa dziko, monga oposa 90% ya padziko lonse inshuwalansi Pamadzi zombo ndi Lamulo malamulo European.

Mapeto anali kuchepetsa kwambiri yopanga chimasanduka, makamaka chifukwa oyima unscheduled ndi kutayiratu 18 mpaka 20% a linanena bungwe angathe kuyambira kumayambiriro ziletso mu 2011. Ziletso pa aku Iran mafuta kupanga odulidwa ndi miliyoni 0,8 b / D - chiwerengero cha amene tsopano akubwerera ku msika.

Kodi mafuta aku Iran lapeza wogula?

Pambuyo kuchotsa zoletsa mu January, malinga ndi lipoti la nduna, Iran anagulitsa anayi Pamadzi (4 miliyoni mbiya) ku Ulaya, kuphatikizapo French Total, Spanish, ndi Russian Cepsa Litasco. Ichi ndi ofanana ndi masiku okha 5 malonda pa mlingo wa ku 2012, pamene ogula European anali kutumizidwa mbiya 800 zikwi. Patsiku. Anthu ambiri amene poyamba makasitomala zikuluzikulu, kuphatikizapo Anglo-Dutch ya Nkhono, Eni a Italy, Greek Agiriki Mafuta ndi malonda nyumba Vitol, Glencore ndi Trafigura, kokha kuti apitirize ntchito. Popeza midzi dollar ndi limagwirira maziko a malonda mu ndalama za maiko ena, komanso kusafuna a mabanki kupereka makalata angongole anali zopinga zazikulu pambuyo zochotsa ziletso.

Pa nthawi yomweyo, ena omwe lalikulu ogula Tehran a kusafuna kuti tisaletse zikhalidwe zake zimene anam'gulira zaka zinayi zapitazo ndipo kukhala mosavuta mu mitengo, ngakhale owonjezera okwanira pa kufunika ndi chiwerengero cha kulanda wa Saudi Arabia Iran European msika, Russia ndi Iraq.

Ziyembekezo 2016

Ndi tsiku pafupi zochotsa ziletso pa dziko msika wa mafuta anapanga bearish zitasintha, pamene mitengo anagwa ndi 25% mu chaka cha ku June kuti August 2015. Pa nthawi yomweyo NYMEX, zam'tsogolo akadali akulozera kuchira awo zofewa, komanso mabungwe mayiko zinanenedweratu mu July ndi August 2015 iwo kukhazikika pa kuzungulira $ 45-65 pa mbiya, ngati mtengo osiyanasiyana mu nthawi kuchokera January kwa July 2015

The malangizo tsogolo la kayendedwe mafuta msika kwakukulukulu zimadalira kuchuluka ndi momwe mwamsanga zingawonjezere katundu mafuta aku Iran pambuyo zochotsa ziletso. Pali awiri maganizo zikuluzikulu kuchuluka imeneyi yomwe.

Pa dzanja limodzi, monga mwa Energy Agency International (EIA), Iran lingathe kuonjezera mphamvu yopanga za 800 zikwi. Migolo patsiku, yokha Saudi Arabia. Komano, malingana Zoneneratu EIA, pambuyo zochotsa ziletso kumayambiriro 2016 mafuta aku Iran yosakongola pa chaka pafupifupi kuonjezera mwa 300 zikwi migolo patsiku..

Chifukwa chachikulu ziwerengero ngati anthuwo kwagona kuti yotsirizira amapereka kulemera kwakukulu kwa mphamvu ya zaka zingapo zofunikila pa kuwonongeka kwa zomangamanga migodi ya Republic Chisilamu, omwe tsopano ayenera nthawi limbikitsa kupanga. Pomaliza, pakati pa 2012 chifukwa oyima posakonzekera mafuta aku Iran pang'onopang'ono anayamba kupangidwa pa migolo osachepera 600-800 zikwi. Patsiku.

Kodi zogwirizana ndi awa akuti kupanga kwa masiku dziko msika wa golide wakuda? Ponso mbiya 800 zikwi. Patsiku ndi 1% ya okwana kwa mafuta dziko lero womwe zokwana kusintha mwadzidzidzi mtengo wa malo mpikisano, koma osati chifukwa msika kuchuluka. Komanso mwapadera, mu sing'anga ndi yaitali mitengo hydrocarbon akuti, monga ulamuliro, amakonda mwakufuna kwa ndalama ulimi wa mbiya wotsiriza wa kufunika wokwanitsidwa. Yaitali otsika mtengo mafuta kumabwezera mmbuyo ndalama mu chitukuko cha madipoziti zodula; pamapeto bwino chatsekedwa, ndipo chakudya yafupika. Ngati mtengo limatuluka pamwamba malire, ndalama watsopano abweretse zina, magwero zodula za chimasanduka.

M'nkhaniyi, poyerekezera ndi ogwidwa mafuta kuloza mu 2014, msika lero ndi phindu saganizira pamapindikira (kuyambira zochitika mtengo kwambiri ndi kale yopindulitsa). Choncho, gwero ka katundu mtengo adzakhala kuli chikoka pa mtengo kuposa mapangidwe nkhanza m'ma 2014.

Chifukwa, mafuta msika chitsanzo zikusonyeza kuti Iran athe kuwonjezera kupanga ndi zina mbiya 800 zikwi. Patsiku mu 2016. Quotes wa Brent mu 2016 zikuoneka kuti apitirize kukhala mu osiyanasiyana $ 45-65 pa mbiya, zomwe n'zogwirizana ndi mtengo kulowera, wakhala yofuna cha 2015.

Zimene zidzachitike zaka 3-5?

Pomalizira Komabe, mphamvu ya kubwerera kwa Iran akhoza kukhala kwambiri. M'zaka zingapo zapitazi ife umboni ndi funde la kutulukira zinthu zatsopano ndi apamwamba kuposa mlingo ambiri ku Middle East. Dziko sangathe mokwanira ntchito malo amenewa chifukwa cha mwayi wochepa umene otaya kunja luso ndi ukatswiri. Chifukwa, osati anagwa mafuta, komanso kutsimikizira mlingo wa nkhokwe ndi yayikulu kwambiri mbiri dziko. Pa nthawi yomweyo, amaudindo panopa kupanga anali koma nditapatsidwa nkhani za ndalama pagulu.

Umenewu pamodzi ndi chakuti Iran (mosiyana Kuwait, Saudi Arabia ndi UAE) alibe thumba ndalama zokwanira azilipira kwa kuchepekedwa bajeti. Izi zikutanthauza kuti mafuta Iran udzakhala zimagulitsidwa ku kuposa izo, nawonso, adzakhala amadalira luso boma ntchito luso kofunika ndi zinachitikira.

Chimango zolimbana mwa Republic Chisilamu ndi vuto lalikulu makampani akunja pofuna aganyali ndalama ndi kudziwa momwe gawo la mphamvu ya dziko. Malamulo Iran chimaletsa umwini yachilendo kapena mwachinsinsi zachilengedwe, ndi kupanga kugawana pangano ndikoletsedwa ndi lamulo. MNCs ndi ndalama zina yachilendo pokhapokha amaloledwa kutenga nawo mbali pa kufufuza ndi kupanga mapangano kudzera kuwombola lapansi. Mapangano awa, kwenikweni, ofanana ndi mapangano potipatsa ntchito, amene amalola ndalama zakunja kufufuza ndi kukhala minda hydrocarbon, malinga pambuyo kupanga chiyambi ulamuliro akubwerera ku National aku Iran Mafuta Company kapena mmodzi wa makampani ake osiyana kuti mugule ufulu kwa anakonzeratu mtengo. Mu 2014, Utumiki wa Mafuta a Iran waneneratu mapulani kuti atchule otchedwa Mapangano mafuta logwirizana (a IPC), amene zinthu ngati kugwilira limodzi makampani kapena PSA ndi nthawi angathe zaka 20 kapena 25 (kawiri bola nthawi ya Mapangano kuwombola). Ngati mtundu watsopano wa pangano adzaloledwa ndi malamulo, chikoka cha dziko ngati kopita ndalama kwa MNCs ndi osewera ena mayiko chidzakula kwambiri ndipo imathandizira kukula kwa nkhokwe hydrocarbon.

Ziyembekezo ndalama likulu

Amanenera, ndalama zatsopano achuluke kufufuza mafuta ndi kupanga mu Iran ndi 6% pachaka pa zaka zisanu (zomwe mogwirizana ndi mlingo wa kukula mu Iraq m'zaka zingapo zapitazi), poyerekeza ndi pafupifupi 1.4% kuwonjezeka kupanga mafuta Middle East ambiri. Pa zochitika izi, poganiza kuti ankafuna sizinasinthe, mtengo wa mafuta zingasiyane pakati $ 60-80 pa mbiya mu 2020, pamene sitili pa zochitika izi, zinthu zina wofanana, mtengo kungakhale 10-15% pamwambapa.

Mu ichi osiyanasiyana mtengo, ya ndalama ku madipoziti ndi ndalama apamwamba, monga shale, sandstone kapena alumali, ndi chodziwikiratu kuti abwerere kaperekedwe ka mpaka 2014 Ngakhale kupanga Azikhala bola ndalama kupanga mafuta ndi otsika zokwanira zifukwa mtengo , mofulumira kutopa magwero amenewa kuchepetsa phindu (shale zitsime, makamaka, monga ulamuliro, kupereka 80% kapena kuposa zaka 3-5). Mu zinthu izi, zokolola za mafuta aku Iran ku msika mabuku zina adzakhala anagunda shale migodi mu United States, ndi pang'ono pokha pa minda zikawonongeka ku North ndi South America, Asia, Africa ndi Far East la Russia. A kutopa mofulumira North Sea madipoziti zidzapangitsa kuti m'malo awo mwa kuchuluka kupanga mu Iran ndi zingakhale m'mayiko ena, monga Iraq ndi Libya.

Aku Iran mafuta, ndi Russia

Osauka khalidwe la Russian mafuta kalasi kwa Urals, amaperekedwa ku Eastern Europe, nkhawa kukula ogula, imakafika ku profitability wa processing ndi zomvetsa ndalama zake kugwa. Choncho, nkhani sulfa m'magawo yopezeka ngalande "Druzhba" ndi mwa malo mu Primorsk ndi mafuta Ayenela-Lug kuposa 1.5%, ndi osalimba yake kuchuluka kwa 31⁰ API. Izi si zizigwirizana mfundo Platt malingana ndi zimene zili sulfure sayenera oposa 1.3%, ndi chizindikiro kachulukidwe - osachepera 32⁰.

Ndi unaipiraipira wa Russian ogula zopangira mu Europe adzakupatsani mmalo makalasi ena - Kirkuk ndi Basrah Kuwala ndi Iran Kuwala. Khalidwe la aku Iran mafuta Iran Kuwala n'zofanana kwa Urals muyezo. osalimba a mudapholiwa - 33,1 ° API, ndi okhutira sulfure si upambana 1.5%.

Kuchotsa ziletso ndi zofuna Republic Chisilamu ku makampani mayiko osiyanasiyana mafuta mu dera Review mapulani wofunika ndipo amaganizira mavuto ndi mwayi zitsanzo.

ndalama zakunja

Aku Iran mafuta pa dziko msika atsegula osiyanasiyana mwayi lingathe MNCs ndi ndalama zina yachilendo, makamaka movomerezedwa ndi mapangano atsopano IPC. Patapita zaka zingapo mwayi kwenikweni ndi luso kunja ndi zochitikachitika za mafakitale aku Iran migodi adzafunikira thandizo kunja, ndipo boma la ndalama dziko ukuonetsa kuti mwayi kuchotsa zotchinga zonse mofulumira thandizo.

Komanso, pamene kupanga adzakhala mu malo oyamba, mkhalidwe n'zimenenso zingachitike ndi mayendedwe (mapaipi kuti katundu kuwonjezeka mabuku kupanga), mankhwala (mpweya ndi mankhwala akulimbana kubala olefins kwa katundu), ndi processing (kwa m'malo a zipangizo mafuta kuyenga kuti si akweza mu nthawi ya ziletso).

Pamaso chimamangidwa ufulu Iran lakhala importer yaikulu ya mafuta, choncho tsopano n'zotheka kukuza kuyenga mphamvu kukumana kufunika m'deralo, mwina chifukwa mlingo wochepa nzeru rial, amene amalimbikitsa inatha M'MALO.

Yopanga ku Iran ndi Iraq ikukula, ndi olimba a zinthu ndale, zakonzedwa nachuluka Libya, ndiwo ayenera kulimbikitsa ndi kuwonjezera nkhani pano mafuta wotchipa. Pali njira zingapo zimene kuchepetsa mavuto obwera chifukwa cha NOC lapansi.

Kufufuza ndi Yopanga

Mwayi kuchepetsa ndi Kuonjezera cangu, makamaka okhudzana ndi ntchito oilfield, kampani ndi ndalama zina zakunja m'dzikoli. Pa mtengo wotsika kwa chimasanduka ndalama lonse pa zokambiranazi ndi kupanga madipoziti mkulu-mtengo m'mbuyo mu makampani utumiki pali owonjezera mphamvu kusindikiza, ndi iwo ali kwambiri womasuka kwa timalembanso mitengo kwawoko. Komanso, pamene uphungu ofunika monga zitsulo, tsopano ankagulitsa pa mtendere mbiri kuchepetsa kwambiri ndalama chingapezeke ndi kasamalidwe zipangizo. Pakuti Middle East NOCs amene m'matangadza adakali wotchipa zokwanira zifukwa ndalama anapitiriza poganizira kusintha kwa chakudya ndi mwayi weniweni kwambiri kuchepetsa ndalama popanda kukopa ndalama weniweni.

processing

Yotchipa zopangira kumafunanso mtengo wotsika katundu wake. Popeza zopangira mafuta nthawi anapulumutsa kwanuko kwambiri, mtengo wa mankhwala mafuta chilamulira chikhalidwe ndi mitengo mafuta.

Izi zikutanthauza kuti mu kufunika kugwa kwa woyengeka mankhwala ogwidwawo yafupika mofulumira kuposa mpweya. Pa nthawi yomweyo, ngati Iran adzalowa msika ndi zina gasi akulimbana zomera, n'zosavuta kuvala mtsinje kwasakwasa mu kukula yopanga gasi, izo ndi mtengo wamkulu kuthamanga. Zoonadi, kupatsidwa kuti dziko si katundu maofesi Lng (ndi zingatenge zaka yomanga ake), n'zotheka kupindula mpweya zotsala ndi kuchepetsedwa kapena kumanga mapaipi watsopano (mwachitsanzo, ngati kuti lero zikugwirizana Turkey, Armenia ndi Azerbaijan) kapena mafuta processing. Iran kale mwakhama ntchito njira yamasika, pamene nthawi yomweyo kukonzekera mapaipi zina zofunika mu zipangizo za zomera latsopano petrochemical kumadzulo kwa dziko. Mwachitsanzo, ntchito yomanga 1500 Km West ethylenically chitoliro ali chomaliza. Izi, pamodzi ndi mtengo wotsika wa makhazikitsidwe aku Iran N'kutheka kuti Republic Chisilamu ndi Mlengi ndi ogwidwa wotsikitsitsa olefins kuwala.

Zikutanthauzanso kuti ophatikizana mtengo wa mankhwala mafuta imatundumukira ntchito akulimbana othandizira. kubwerera Iran ku msika kungafune Baibulo la profitability wachibale wa mankhwala pamaziko a chimasanduka ndi maiko mpweya kubala ya Persian Gulf imakhala profitability poyerekeza mpweya katundu mu mawonekedwe a Lng poyerekeza ndi processing ake olefins.

Monga mmene wotchipa ndi zabwino chifukwa cholimbana ndi nusu, wotchipa yosakongola aku Iran mafuta pa msika ndi zabwino refiners. Izi zidzapangitsa kuti mipata yambiri ndalama mu Gulf - achita ntchito angapo kuonjezera mphamvu (kupatulapo kuwonjezeka kumunsi amene akanakhoza kutenga malo mu Iran). M'njira imeneyi kukhala ndi mavuto IOCs chuma ndi makampani wodzilamulira mu mbali zina za dziko amafunitsitsa kuchotsa katundu wawo mafuta, Middle East NOCs muli ndi mwayi pophatikizana ndi kupeza wokongola.

Kuchotsa ziletso motsutsa Republic Chisilamu ndi kuwonjezeka ofanana mu kotunga chimasanduka chimatitsimikizira kuti dziko lapansi monga mu 1980, lili pa chiyambi cha mafuta zingakhale yaitali nthawi zotchipa. Aku Iran kaonedwe akulonjeza mavuto atsopano ndi mwayi ndipo adzaupereka kwa anthu amene msanga ndi bwino kuika mphamvu kusintha mu zolinga zawo zoopsa.