Okun M'chilamulo. Okun a koyefishienti: tanthauzo, chilinganizo

Pakuti kusanthula zinthu zachuma zambiri ntchito malamulo Okun a. Chiŵerengero, amene unayambitsidwa wasayansi, Pofotokoza pakati pa ulova ndi kukula. Iwo linatsegulidwa pamaziko a deta wazotsatira mu 1962, asayansi, amene ulemu ndi dzina lake. Kafukufuku amasonyeza kuti kuwonjezeka ulova ndi 1% akutitsogolera kuti kuchepa GDP mwenimwenimo angathe 2%. Komabe, chiŵerengero iyi si nthawi zonse. Iwo akhoza zimasiyana malinga ndi boma ndipo nthawi nthawi. Chiŵerengero pakati pa kusintha miyezi itatu iriyonse mu mlingo wa ulova ndi GDP weniweni - izi ndi Chilamulo Okun a. kachitidwe, tisaiwale, akadali kudzudzulidwa. Ndipo adamfunsa phindu ake kufotokoza zinthu msika.

Chilamulo Okun a

Factor ndi lamulo kuseri kwa icho adawonekera chifukwa cha zowerengera deta processing, ndiye kuzipenya wazotsatira. Bukuli lili sadzayigwira ndikuyitulutsa chiphunzitso choyambirira, limene anayesedwa kuchita. Arthur Melvin Ouken anaona chitsanzo, kuphunzira ziwerengero wa United States. Ndi pafupifupi. Ichi ndi chifukwa chakuti lalikulu mankhwala zoweta zimakhudza zinthu zambiri, osati ndalama ulova. Komabe, kupenda chosavuta ubale pakati pa ntchito zazikulu za citukuko ndi Nthawi zina zothandiza monga kafukufuku wasonyeza Okun. Koyefishienti outputted asayansi kusonyezedwa kudalira inversely njila pakati linanena bungwe ndi ulova. Ouken ankakhulupirira kuti kuwonjezeka mankhwala aakulu m'banja ndi 2% chifukwa likusuntha zotsatirazi:

• kusiya mu mlingo wa cyclical ulova ndi 1%;
• kuwonjezeka ntchito za 0.5%;
• kuwonjezera chiwerengero cha maola ogwilira ntchito iliyonse alimi 0.5%;
• kukula zokolola za 1%.

Choncho, kuchepetsa mlingo wa ozungulira Okun ulova 0.1%, tingayembekezere kuwonjezeka mu GDP weniweni 0.2%. Komabe, chiŵerengero n'kosiyanasiyana kwa maiko osiyanasiyana ndipo nthaŵi. Kudalira wayesedwa kumapeto kwa onse GDP ndi GNP. Martin akuti Prachovni, kuchepa kupanga ndi 3% chifukwa kuchepa ulova ndi 1%. Komabe, iye amakhulupirira kuti ichi ndi ubale zina. Malinga Prachovni pa ulimi amakhudza ulova kenanso, ndi zinthu zina monga mphamvu magwiritsidwe ndi kuchuluka kwa maola ntchito. Choncho ndikofunikira kukana iwo. Prachovni masamu kuti ndichepe ulova 1% kumachititsa kuchuluka kwa GDP 0,7 yekha%. kudalira amakhala ofooka pa nthawi. Mu 2005, kusanthula ziwerengero posachedwapa imachitika Endryu Abel ndi Ben Bernanke. Akuganiza kuti kuwonjezeka ulova ndi 1% kumabweretsa dontho kupanga ndi 2%.

zifukwa

Koma chifukwa GDP kukula mitengo kuposa kusintha kuchuluka mu mlingo wa ulova? N'zotheka kupereka malongosoledwe zingapo:

• The kanthu za mmene multiplier. Anthu ambiri ntchito, wamkulu kufunika kwa katundu. Choncho, kupanga akhoza kukula pang'onopang'ono mofulumira kuposa mlingo ntchito.
• Ungwiro ziwerengero. anthu lova akhoza kusiya chabe kufunafuna ntchito. Ngati zimenezi zachitika, iwo idzapita ku "Rada" mabungwe zowerengera.
• Kachiwiri, makamaka-ntchito anthu akhoza kuyamba ntchito zochepa. Mu ziwerengero zimangokhala zosaoneka. Komabe, zinthu izi kukhudzanso kupanga. Choncho, nambalayi antchito, ife atha kupeza zizindikiro zosiyana aakulu mankhwala zoweta.
• The kuchepa zokolola ntchito. Izi zikhoza kukhala chifukwa osati kuwonongeka kwa bungwe, komanso ndi nambala yambiri pa ntchito.

Chilamulo Okun akuti: chilinganizo

Ife anayamba kalembedwe zotsatirazi:

• Y - linanena bungwe weniweni.
• Y '- kuthekera aakulu m'banja mankhwala.
• u - weniweni ulova.
• u '- mlingo achilengedwe a chithunzi m'mbuyomu.
• C - Okun koyefishienti.

Mogwirizana ndi kalembedwe pamwamba, wina angapeze chilinganizo zotsatirazi: (Y '- Y) / Y' = munthu * (u - u ').

Mu US, kuyambira 1955, chithunzi yamasika zambiri anali 2 kapena 3, monga mmene tatchulawa maphunziro wazotsatira. Komabe, Baibulo ili la chilamulo Okun a sikawirikawiri ntchito chifukwa milingo angathe ulova ndi lalikulu mankhwala m'banja kovuta kuti asa-. Pali lina lomwe njira.

Kodi kuwerengera GDP

Kuwerengetsa mlingo wa kukula GDP, ife anayamba notations zotsatirazi:

• Y - leni kuchuluka kwa nkhaniyi.
• Δu - kusintha mu mlingo leni la ulova poyerekeza ndi chaka chatha.
• C - Okun koyefishienti.
• ΔY - kusintha linanena bungwe leni poyerekeza ndi chaka chatha.
• K - pachaka avareji kukula kupanga pa ntchito zonse.

Ntchito kalembedwe ka deta angapeze anthu aone kuti pali zotsatirazi: ΔY / Y = K - m'ma * Δu.

Pakuti nthawi masiku ano US mbiri koyefishienti C ndi wofanana 2 K - 3%. Motero, aone kuti pali: ΔY / Y = 0,03 - 2Δu.

ntchito

Kudziwa mmene kuwerengera Okun koyefishienti, nthawi zambiri wothandiza mumaganiza nyumbayi. Koma nthawi zambiri, nambala chifukwa si wolondola kwambiri. Izi ndi chifukwa koyefishienti a kusintha kudutsa maiko ndi nthaŵi. Choncho, tiyenera kuganizira kuneneratu chifukwa cha kukula GDP mwa kulenga ntchito ndi pamlingo winawake kukayikira. Komanso, mumaganiza yochepa ndi zolondola. Ichi ndi chifukwa chakuti iriyonse kusintha umboni zingakhudze.

kuchita

Musamachite mlingo ulova ndi 10%, ndipo leni aakulu mankhwala zoweta - milliardov 7500 mayunitsi ndalama.
Tiyenera kupeza kuchuluka kwa GDP kuti akhoza kukhala ngati mlingo wa ulova mogwirizana ndi chizindikiro achilengedwe (6%). vutoli mosavuta anathana ndi ntchito malamulo Okun a. Chiŵerengero limasonyeza kuti madzi enieni a owonjezera pa zachilengedwe ulova 1% kumabweretsa kufa 2% ya GDP. Choncho, choyamba tiyenera kupeza kusiyana pakati pa 10% ndi 6%. Choncho, kusiyana pakati pa mlingo lenileni ndi masoka ulova ndi 4%. Pambuyo kuti ndi zovuta kumvetsa kuti GDP mu vuto kumbuyo mtengo wake poyesetsa 8%. Tsopano ife kutenga leni aakulu m'banja mankhwala 100%. Ndiponso, Ndizachidziwikire kuti 108% ya GDP chenicheni cha 7500 * 1.08 = thililiyoni 8.1 ndalama. Iwo ayenera kumvetsa kuti chitsanzo ichi ndi chitsanzo cha njira ya chuma. Kunena zoona, kungakhale chosiyana. Choncho, malamulo a ntchito Okun ndi abwino okha yochepa kulosera, kumene kulibe miyezo enieni kwambiri.